The pressure on India’s “strategic autonomy” just went from a simmer to a full boil. As of Thursday, January 8, 2026, Senator Lindsey Graham confirmed that President Trump has “greenlit” the Sanctioning of Russia Act of 2025.1
The thing is, this isn’t just another diplomatic warning. This bill is a financial sledgehammer. If it passes, it mandates 500% tariffs on any country—specifically naming India, China, and Brazil—that continues to buy Russian oil or uranium.2 Or nothing. Let’s be real, a 500% tax would effectively kill Indian exports to the U.S. overnight.3 Those too.
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The “Oil & Tariffs” Log: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the Trump administration is using trade as a weapon to force a peace deal in Ukraine.4
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The “Leverage” Play: Senator Graham was blunt: he said the bill gives Trump “tremendous leverage” to stop the flow of “cheap Russian oil” that funds Putin’s military.5
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The Current Pain: India is already reeling from a 50% tariff on many goods (a 25% “reciprocal” tax plus a 25% “penalty” for Russian oil) imposed back in August 2025.6
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The “Ambassador’s House” Comment: Graham recently joked that when he visited the Indian Ambassador’s house, all they wanted to talk about was rolling back the 25% duty. Now, that looks like wishful thinking.
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The Economic Hit: Indian exports to the U.S. have already dropped significantly in the last six months of 2025. A jump to 500% would be a total trade decoupling.
India’s Defiance vs. Economic Reality
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[Table: The Russia-India-USA Triangle]
| Metric | Status as of Jan 2026 |
| Import Status | Russia remains India’s top oil supplier (~35% of imports). |
| The “Commitment” | India denied Trump’s claim that PM Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil. |
| The “Double Standard” | MEA has slammed the U.S., pointing out that Europe still buys Russian gas and uranium. |
| The Market Reaction | Indian markets (Nifty/Sensex) fell nearly 1% today on the news. |
And Here’s the Kicker…
The timing is brutal. Ukraine is reportedly making “peace concessions,” and the Trump administration wants to choke off Russia’s remaining cash flow to finish the deal.7 The thing is, India is in a bind. We’ve saved an estimated $13 billion by buying discounted Russian crude since 2022, but we stand to lose way more if our $40+ billion trade surplus with the U.S. evaporates.8
The Senate could vote on this as early as next week. It’s a messy, high-stakes game of chicken. Minister Jaishankar has already signaled that India “won’t bow down,” but with 84 Senators already co-sponsoring the bill, the “veto” or “waiver” power is the only thing standing between India and a massive economic shock.9
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