India’s manufacturing sector slowed hard in November, hitting a nine-month low PMI of 56.6. HSBC’s chief economist confirms it: U.S. tariffs are the wrecking ball. Export orders plummeted to a 13-month low. Field notes on the fading GST boost and the worrying lack of business confidence.
Big headline today, but the details are messy. India’s manufacturing activity—the whole sector—it just hit a nine-month low in November. A real slowdown.
The number we’re looking at is the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). It dropped from a strong 59.2 in October. It landed at 56.6 in November. That’s the slowest growth since way back in February. A major dip. You see the sales soften. The production eased up. That challenging market is real.
The Tariff Hit
Pranjul Bhandari, the Chief India Economist at HSBC, she didn’t mince words. She said the final November PMI confirmed it: U.S. tariffs caused the manufacturing expansion to slow.
The new export orders PMI? That fell to a 13-month low. Ouch. International sales are still happening—orders from Africa, Asia, Europe, that kind of thing—but the overall growth momentum? Lost. It just faded.
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Business Confidence Tumbles: This is the most worrying part. Future output expectations—business confidence—it showed a big fall in November. Why? Because the concerns about those U.S. tariffs are increasing. That direct hit is visible now.
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The Fading Boost: Bhandari noted that the lift from GST cuts? That might be going away. It might not be enough. It’s insufficient to “offset the tariff headwind to demand.” That tariff wall is too high.
The Political Response
The Commerce Secretary, Rajesh Agrawal, was talking about this just last week. Said India is hopeful. They want a framework trade deal with the U.S. this year. That should address the tariff issue. The negotiations have been going on forever. The first tranche of a bilateral trade deal was supposed to happen back in the fall. But Trump’s administration imposing those tariffs—the 50% ones—that happened. And then the hurdles followed.
Agrawal says a full Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) will take time. But they are focused on this framework deal. To solve the reciprocal tariff challenge facing Indian exporters. It’s an urgent fix, or nothing.
Other Indicators
The damage isn’t just in sales. It’s everywhere.
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Employment: Hiring expanded, yeah, but at the softest pace in 21 months. Manufacturers adjusted their purchasing and hiring efforts. They slowed down because the new orders slowed down.
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Future Outlook: Companies are still confident about a rise in output over the next year, which is good. But that positive sentiment? It plummeted. It’s at its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years. That downgraded forecast stemmed from concerns about the competitive landscape. International firms are a real threat.
It’s clear the manufacturing sector is still growing, above that 50 mark. But the pace is slowing hard. The momentum is gone. The economic fallout from the trade tensions is definitely an ongoing situation.
