Putin-Modi Summit Kicks Off: India Seeks Oil Sanctions Reprieve as Both Nations Aim for text{100text{Billion} Trade Target by 2030

The primary tension here is oil, or nothing. India ramped up its purchase of discounted Russian crude after the West curtailed its reliance, and that made Russia India’s top oil supplier.⁵

Then the US came down hard.

• Tariffs: In August, the US doubled the tariffs on Indian goods related to its Russian oil purchases to ⁶50%.⁷

• Sanctions: In November, the US sanctions on major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil went into full effect.⁸ These two companies alone account for about 60% of India’s oil imports from Russia. That’s a huge proble

Indian refiners, like Reliance Industries and state-controlled firms, have reportedly halted or reduced imports from these sanctioned entities.⁹ This has caused Russian oil flows to India to drop sharply in December, with one estimate suggesting they could fall by nearly half, towards ¹⁰1.0 million barrels per day (bpd).¹¹

Putin, for his part, publicly argued that if the US can buy Russian fuel (like nuclear fuel), India should enjoy the “same privilege.” India is essentially seeking a reprieve, or at least clarification, from the US sanctions because its energy security is tied up in these Russian imports.¹²

 Economic & Strategic Goals

Despite the sanctions headache, both countries want to deepen ties, especially on the economic front.¹³

• Trade Target: They are working aggressively to boost trade from the current all-time high of ¹⁴68text{billion} in ¹⁵2024 to a target of ¹⁶100text{billion} by ¹⁷2030.¹⁸

  Trade Imbalance: The thing is, this trade is currently heavily skewed toward Russia because of energy imports.¹⁹ Russia wants to push India to buy more Russian weapons (like the S-²⁰400 missile systems and Su-²¹57 fighter jets) and is simultaneously working to increase Indian exports—pharmaceuticals, agriculture, IT—into the Russian market to balance the trade deficit.²

Today’s agenda is packed: ceremonial visits, then the high-level meetings at Hyderabad House, followed by a media address and a gathering with business leaders.²³ Putin is due to depart at ²⁴9text{pm} local time.²⁵ The outcome of the talks on oil and defence will determine how well India can continue its strategic autonomy, navigating the pressure from Washington while maintaining its long-standing partnership with Moscow.

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