India‘s first home series loss of the cycle was a gut punch. Australia (100% PCT) and South Africa (75% PCT) have made strong starts, and now India has almost no margin for error in the second half of the campaign.
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The Math: What India Needs
India has 9Â Tests left. To hit the 60% PCT qualification threshold, they need to reach 130Â points total (out of a maximum possible 216). They currently have 52Â points.
This means India must earn 78 more points from their remaining 9Â matches.
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The Minimum Path: 6 Wins + 2Â Draws (or better).
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6 Wins times 12pts} = 72pts
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2 Draws times 4 pts = 8 pts
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Total Points Needed: $80$ (This gets them to 132 total points, or 61.11% PCT).
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A single loss from here could be catastrophic. They effectively have to treat every match like a knockout game.
The Remaining Schedule (No Easy Walks)
The remaining schedule is a difficult mix of tough away tours and a massive home series.
| Series | Matches | Date (Approx) | Context |
| Sri Lanka (Away) | 2 | August 2026 | India has a strong recent record here, but an away win is never guaranteed. |
| New Zealand (Away) | 2 | Oct-Nov 2026 | A graveyard for India—they lost 2-0 on the last tour in 2020. This is a crucial, high-difficulty series. |
| Australia (Home) | 5 | Early 2027 | The Border-Gavaskar Trophy at home. India must dominate this series, winning at least $3$ or $4$ Tests, or nothing. |
Even if India sweeps the four away Tests in Sri Lanka and New Zealand (which is a massive ask, especially in NZ), they will still go into the five-match home series against Australia needing to bank most of the points to lock down a top-two spot.
Australia and South Africa are currently cruising, making India’s comeback climb even harder. India’s path to the WTC final has turned into a long, hard climb from mid-table.
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