The crisis in Iran has reached a harrowing turning point as an unnamed Iranian official confirmed to Reuters on January 13, 2026, that approximately 2,000 people have been killed in nationwide unrest.
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This is the first time a government source has acknowledged a casualty figure of this magnitude, though authorities have attributed the deaths to “terrorists” and “foreign-backed rioters.“
The protests, which began in late December 2025 over the collapse of the Iranian Rial (now trading at 1.48 million to $1), have evolved into a direct challenge to the clerical establishment across all 31 provinces.
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1. Key Developments on the Ground
For the first time since the internet blackout began, restricted mobile phone communication was restored on Tuesday, allowing accounts of the devastation to reach the outside world.
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Heavy Security Presence: Callers describe central Tehran as a “fortress” with heavy security deployments and widespread destruction of government buildings, banks, and ATMs.
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Death Toll Discrepancy: While the official quoted 2,000 deaths, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has verified 646 deaths and 10,700 arrests. Other estimates suggest the toll could be even higher.
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Siege in Zahedan: State TV reported the arrest of “terrorist groups” allegedly linked to Israel in the southeast, claiming they were found with US-made explosives.
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2. Trump’s “25% Tariff” Ultimatum
U.S. President Donald Trump has dramatically escalated economic and military pressure on Tehran through a series of “Truth Social” posts and official statements:
| Action | Impact / Context |
| 25% Trade Tariff | Announced Monday; any country doing business with Iran (India, China, UAE, Turkey) faces a 25% tariff on all business with the US. |
| Military Option | Trump stated he is “looking at very strong options,” including aircraft carrier deployments, to defend “peaceful protesters.” |
| Negotiation Claims | Trump claims Iran has called to negotiate, stating “I think they’re tired of being beat up by the United States.” |
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3. Impact on India: Economic and Strategic Strain
India, one of Iran’s top five trading partners, faces a complex diplomatic challenge:
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Trade Risk: The 25% US tariff could jeopardize $1.68 billion in bilateral trade, affecting exports of basmati rice, tea, and pharmaceuticals.
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Chabahar Port: India’s strategic investment in the Iranian port, intended to access Central Asia, could be caught in the crossfire of US sanctions.
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Diplomatic Stance: India’s Ambassador to Iran has refuted claims of Indian nationals being arrested during the protests, but the government remains on high alert.
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(With AP, Reuters inputs)
