In a major geopolitical plot twist, the US Commerce Department officially opened the door for Nvidia to sell its high-powered H200 AI chips to China as of Wednesday, January 14, 2026.1
The thing is, this isn’t a free-for-all. Or nothing. Let’s be real, while the Biden-era “presumption of denial” is gone, the new “case-by-case” review comes with more strings than a puppet show. Those too. President Trump’s deal with Xi Jinping basically turns the US Treasury into a partner—the feds are taking a 25% cut of every H200 sale.2 And here’s the kicker: the moment the US said “yes,” reports started surfacing that Beijing might say “no.”
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The “H200 Chip War” Log: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the technology is 18 months behind the latest US-only “Blackwell” chips, but it’s still six times faster than what China can make locally.
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The “50% Rule”: There’s a catch. China can’t buy more than half the volume of what US customers are getting.3 The thing is, Nvidia has to prove there’s “sufficient supply” at home first. If Microsoft or Meta want more chips, China has to wait in line.
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The Beijing Blockade: Just as the US approved the exports yesterday, Chinese customs agents were reportedly told to halt the H200s at the border.4 The thing is, Beijing is pushing a “Buy Chinese” mandate. They’ve told tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance to use Huawei’s Ascend 910C instead. Or else.
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Special Exemptions: If you’re a university or a research lab, you might still get the Nvidia gear. The thing is, Chinese officials are only approving H200s under “special circumstances.” It’s a classic bargaining tactic—Beijing wants to show they aren’t dependent on American silicon.
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The “Lutnick” Oversight: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s team is now using third-party labs to test every chip before it leaves for China.5 The thing is, they’re making sure the speeds haven’t been “unlocked” beyond the legal limits.
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AI Chip Scorecard: Jan 14, 2026
| Chip Model | Status in China | Performance Gap |
| Nvidia Blackwell | BANNED (US Policy) | The Gold Standard (100%). |
| Nvidia H200 | APPROVED (with 25% Fee) | ~70% of Blackwell. |
| Huawei Ascend 910C | NATIVE (Beijing Priority) | ~30-40% of H200. |
| Nvidia H20 | PHASED OUT | The old “downgraded” model. |
And Here’s the Kicker…
Nvidia has already received orders for over 2 million H200 chips from China, but they only have about 700,000 in stock.6 The thing is, if Beijing continues the “soft ban” at customs, Nvidia might be stuck with billions in inventory they can’t move. And then there’s the political fallout—Democrats are calling the 25% revenue-sharing deal “national security for sale.”
It’s an ongoing situation where the AI race is less about who has the best code and more about who has the best paperwork.
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End…
