The big day is tomorrow. Reliance Industries (RIL) is scheduled to report its Q3 FY26 results on Friday, January 16, 2026.
The thing is, the street is expecting a bit of a “tug-of-war” between segments. Or nothing. Let’s be real, the old-school Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business is back to being the hero, while Reliance Retail is looking a little tired. Those too. Estimates are hovering around a ₹19,200 crore consolidated profit—that’s a modest 4% bump. It’s an ongoing situation where the “Goldman Sachs” crowd is bullish on refining, but worried that we’ve all stopped shopping as much at the mall.
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The “RIL Q3 Preview” Log: Field Notes
It’s an ongoing situation where the diversified giant is using its “three-legged stool” to stay balanced.
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The O2C Comeback: Singapore GRMs (Gross Refining Margins) have been healthy, touching nearly 14 per barrel. The thing is, this “golden age” of refining is offsetting the fact that petrochemicals are still in the dumps. And here’s the kicker—Kotak expects O2C EBITDA to jump 15% year-on-year.
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Jio’s Steady Climb: No big tariff hikes lately. The thing is, they’re still adding about 8-9 million users a quarter. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) is expected to inch up to ₹213-₹214. And here’s the kicker—investors are really looking for clues on the Jio IPO, which everyone says is coming in mid-2026.
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The Retail “Soft Spot”: Growth is cooling down to about 10% (it was double that last year). The thing is, the “festive season” split and heavy investments in Quick Commerce are squeezing margins. It’s a messy transition as they fight off Zepto and Blinkit.
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Upstream Weakness: Lower crude prices and a natural decline in gas output from KG-D6 mean the Oil & Gas segment will likely be a drag. The thing is, EBITDA here could slip by 13-15%.
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RIL Q3 FY26: The “Pre-Match” Numbers
| Metric | Estimated (Q3 FY26) | Change (YoY) | Key Driver |
| Consol. Revenue | ₹2.54 – ₹2.56 Lakh Cr | +6% to +8% | O2C volume & Jio subs |
| Consol. EBITDA | ₹47,900 Cr | +9% to +10% | Strong Refining Margins |
| Net Profit (PAT) | ₹19,200 Cr | +4% to +7% | Higher Interest/Depreciation |
| Jio ARPU | ₹213.5 | +0.8% (QoQ) | 5G upgrades |
And Here’s the Kicker…
The stock has been a bit “moody” lately, down about 8% year-to-date to roughly ₹1,450. The thing is, everyone is waiting for the “New Energy” update.
It’s an ongoing situation where the Gigafactories in Jamnagar are supposed to start rolling out products this year. The thing is, if Mukesh Ambani drops a hint about the first Green Hydrogen sale or a timeline for the Solar PV plant tomorrow, the stock could snap out of its “corrective phase” pretty fast.
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End…
